The Cynefin Framework: Journey With The Fellowship Through Middle Earth

Journeying to a Clear ‘North Star’ in a Chaotic Middle Earth adventure.

Warning: One does not simply read on without having read J.R.R. Tolkein’s The Fellowship of the Ring or watched Peter Jackson’s film. The Lord of the Rings spoilers ahead.

The Cynefin Framework by Dave Snowden is a framework that illustrates how different scenarios can inform decision-making, particularly from a leadership standpoint. Within it, scenarios can be categorized within five domains, including Clear (a.k.a., Obvious; Simple), Complicated, Complex, Chaotics (a.k.a., Chaos), and Disorder (a.k.a., Liminal). Often, online sites explain the framework on theoretical basis or a few high-level examples per domain. What’s less often exemplified is how a given situation can move between the domains, causing different decisions to be made as it unfolds. These shifts and changes is what makes the Cynefin Framework particularly exciting as organisations prepare and design to be more agile and spark creativity.

I’ve decided to show-case domain shifts and changes using a pop-culture example that may help in remembering these different domains: J.R.R. Tolkein’s The Fellowship of the Ring. So let’s pluck our favorite characters from the Middle Earth map, and plop them onto the Cynefin Framework and get going…

In the beginning of The Fellowship of the Ring, after seeing Bilbo’s ring’s capability, Gandalf suspects the ring may be the One Ring created by Sauron. However, he does not have solid proof. Therefore, prior to moving into action, Gandalf takes steps to uncover if this ring is the One Ring, to best understand what to do. In the meantime, upon Bilbo’s departure, the ring is in Bag End for safe keeping with Frodo. Prior to moving forward on assumptions and without any imminent threat, we see Gandalf squarely in the Disorder domain, where he is assessing what sort of situation he is faced with in order to make a decision.

Once Gandalf is reassured that this ring is indeed the One Ring, he knows it must be destroyed as the ring causes nothing but destruction and sways the resolve of even those with the best intentions. Luckily, there is a very clear and obvious way to destroy the ring - throwing the ring in the fires of Mount Doom. For those who do not know Middle Earth, or the happenings outside of The Shire, their solution may seem to fall within the Clear domain. I mean, the ring must be cast into the fires of Mount Doom so that it can be destroyed, so let’s do it!

However, Gandalf knows this won’t be an easy task. Although this is the end goal, as Boromir says in Peter Jackson’s film “One does not simply walk into Mordor”. Essentially, there is too much that can go wrong before being able to toss the ring into the fires.

To get to Mount Doom, many steps need to happen first, which means there are many opportunities to derail our heroes in their quest. Gandalf recognises there may be those who know more about the journey ahead and what should be done in the quest to destroy the ring. For this reason, Gandalf lets Frodo know of the ring and to meet him in an agreed to spot away from Bag End to proceed forward. This allows Frodo and Sam time to make their way and for Gandalf to speak with the head of his council, Saruman. In this case, Gandhalf decides to approach this situation as one within the Complicated domain, where the expert Saruman could advise on what can be done. As you may know, Saruman may have indeed been an expert in this matter, yet is ultimately not trustworthy, and therefore throws our heroes into the Chaotic domain (the first time they will be landing in that domain, but definitely not the last).

Having unfortunately entrusted the deceitful Saruman with knowledge of the ring, our heroes have to make timely decisions and come up with novel solutions. Frodo and Sam (now with fellow hobbits Merry and Pippin) decided to entrust Strider to help them get to Rivendell, which thankfully pays off as Strider (i.e., Aragorn) is not just an expert in navigating, but is also set on supporting the destruction of the ring. Gandalf is able to break free from Saruman’s clutches by escaping from Isengard with the help of a Great Eagle.

With both Sauron, Saruman, and their followers in opposition, our heroes’ North Star (i.e., desired end state and overarching goal) of throwing that pesky ring in the fires of Mount Doom is now even more Complex. Regrouping in Rivendell, our heroes now have a chance to reassess their situation and know this task will require the support and skills that various different people hold for some of the unknown that is to befall their path between leaving Rivendell and throwing the ring into Mount Doom. For this reason, The Fellowship is created, comprised of various different representatives with dispersed backgrounds and expertise. The coming together of The Fellowship allows for creative solutions to be found and different skills and capabilities to shine at different points through the journey. For example, Gimli is the most qualified at guiding the fellowship through Moria, Gandalf is the most qualified to battle the Balrog in its depths, Aragorn is the best with directing their path and helps The Fellowship to the Elven realm of Lothlórien, Legolas offers up his elven eyesight, hearing, and wisdom, Frodo is the best equip to carry the burden of the ring, Sam is Frodo’s greatest moral support, and Merry and Pippin show their strengths particularly as the trilogy progresses.

Although The Fellowship is comprised of individuals with a variety of skillsets, when in the Complex domain, an openness to additional, unexpected expertise is often further required. For example, The Fellowship do not have a Contingency Plan for if they ever disband, opening them up for perhaps a bit more Chaos than they perhaps would prefer. Frodo left to his own devices? … I mean, is there another solution? What Galadriel, the Lady of the woods of Lothlórien, offers is some guidance on this blind spot. Interestingly enough, she does have the capacity to see probable futures, and contingency plans are often created by risk management and business continuity specialists who aim to scope out hazards, vulnerabilities, along with their probabilities and impact levels, to make forward-thinking decisions about and prepare for the future. Galadriel warns Frodo about the wavering hearts of The Fellowship, which plants the seed that he may need to make alternative plans, and provides the company with various supplies that will prove to be useful as their journey progresses.

As alluded to above, The Fellowship ultimately dissolves, throwing our heroes into the Chaotic domain while they reconsider strategies and make timely decisions based on their limited capabilities and knowledge. With the North Star of destroying the ring in the fires of Mount Doom still in mind, Frodo and Sam go on trying to make the best decisions to getting them as quickly and successfully to Mount Doom as possible, while the rest of The Fellowship focus on indirectly supporting against Sauron’s plots - protecting the people of Middle Earth while they wait, and helping Frodo and Sam get to Mount Doom from afar, however they can.

The next time you’re confronted with a decision in the workplace and beyond, hopefully this The Lord of the Rings analogy using the Cynefin Framework is able to exemplify how scenarios shift and change. With new information, you may need to review the approach you need to take. Situations can transform, and attempting to stay too long in one domain’s operating model may lead to you to not making the decisions you need to reach your North Star.